Opinion
HOT MONEY OR THE FIRST STAGE OF RECOVERING CONFIDENCE?
A Response to an Unsigned Commentary on Nigeria’s Capital Inflows
By Tanimu Yakubu
INTRODUCTION
The unsigned commentary under review presents itself as a forensic examination of Nigeria’s recent capital-importation figures. Its central thesis is that because a substantial proportion of recent inflows entered Treasury bills and other money-market instruments rather than factories and industrial enterprises, the inflows should not be interpreted as evidence of confidence in Nigeria’s economy. Instead, they are characterised as speculative, transient and symptomatic of deeper economic weakness.
The argument is forcefully stated. Unfortunately, it rests upon a misunderstanding of how capital typically returns to economies emerging from periods of macroeconomic instability and undertaking major policy adjustment.
THE NATURE OF PORTFOLIO CAPITAL AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
The first weakness in the argument lies in its treatment of foreign portfolio investment as though it were an inferior and economically insignificant form of capital. Economic history provides little support for such a view.
In virtually every major emerging-market recovery of the last four decades, portfolio capital arrived before substantial foreign direct investment. This was true in India following the reforms of the early 1990s, in Indonesia after the Asian Financial Crisis, and in Egypt following exchange-rate liberalisation in 2016.
Portfolio investment and foreign direct investment are fundamentally different economic decisions with entirely different time horizons. A portfolio investor can assess macroeconomic conditions and allocate capital within days or weeks. By contrast, before a multinational corporation commits hundreds of millions of dollars to a manufacturing facility, energy project, logistics hub or processing plant, it must undertake feasibility studies, engineering assessments, environmental reviews, legal due diligence, tax planning, land acquisition, financing arrangements, board approvals and often shareholder consultations. Such processes frequently require years rather than months.
Financial capital therefore responds more quickly to improving economic conditions than productive capital. To cite current FDI levels as proof that reforms have failed is to evaluate a long-gestation process before it has had sufficient time to mature.
INTEREST RATES, RISK AND INVESTOR BEHAVIOUR
The article repeatedly suggests that foreign investors are purchasing Nigerian securities merely because yields are high. Such reasoning confuses nominal returns with real returns and overlooks one of the most elementary principles of international finance.
Investors do not allocate capital solely on the basis of the interest rate printed on a Treasury bill. They evaluate expected returns after accounting for inflation, exchange-rate risk, sovereign risk, liquidity risk and political risk. A 25 percent yield is of little value if investors simultaneously expect a substantially larger currency depreciation.
The willingness of investors to acquire and hold naira-denominated assets therefore reflects a judgement that the balance between risk and return has improved relative to previous periods.
THE LESSONS OF 2015–2016
The characterisation of portfolio flows as merely ‘hot money’ neglects an important chapter in Nigeria’s own recent history.
Between 2015 and 2016, foreign portfolio inflows declined sharply as investors became increasingly concerned about exchange-rate policy, foreign-exchange liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty. The consequences were immediate and significant. Foreign-exchange liquidity tightened, pressure on the exchange rate intensified, divergence between official and parallel-market rates widened, inflationary pressures increased and economic growth slowed.
If portfolio capital is economically irrelevant, it becomes difficult to explain why its disappearance produced such profound consequences for reserves, exchange-rate stability, current-account financing and overall macroeconomic confidence. The reality is that portfolio flows constitute an important component of modern international finance and their presence or absence carries significant implications for economic performance.
MONETARIST AND KEYNESIAN PERSPECTIVES
Both monetarist and Keynesian traditions would recognise the significance of capital flows, albeit for different reasons.
From a monetarist perspective, capital inflows contribute to the supply of foreign exchange available within the economy, support monetary stability and help moderate imported inflation by reducing pressure on the exchange rate.
From a Keynesian perspective, investor confidence is itself an important economic variable. Financial conditions influence expectations, expectations influence investment decisions and investment decisions influence growth. Confidence in financial markets and confidence in the real economy are distinct concepts, but they are not unrelated.
THE RETURN OF CONFIDENCE UNDER PRESIDENT BOLA AHMED TINUBU, GCFR
The return of capital did not occur spontaneously. For years, investors identified exchange-rate distortions, foreign-exchange market fragmentation, subsidy-related fiscal pressures and uncertainty regarding policy direction as major impediments to investment.
The reforms undertaken under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR—including exchange-rate liberalisation, fuel-subsidy removal, tighter monetary policy and efforts to restore transparency in foreign-exchange markets—addressed many of these concerns directly. These were difficult decisions with significant short-term costs. Yet they also signalled a willingness to confront structural distortions that had accumulated over many years.
The recent increase in capital inflows should therefore be understood within the broader context of macroeconomic adjustment and the gradual restoration of investor confidence.
CONCLUSION
None of this implies that Nigeria should be satisfied with current levels of foreign direct investment. On the contrary, attracting larger volumes of long-term productive capital remains one of the country’s most important economic objectives. Stronger infrastructure, improved security, regulatory consistency, efficient logistics and sustained policy credibility remain indispensable to that effort.
However, it does not follow that the return of portfolio capital should be interpreted as evidence of failure. The more historically grounded interpretation is that financial capital is responding first to improving macroeconomic conditions while productive capital is still moving through the longer and more complex process that necessarily precedes major investment commitments.
The relevant question is whether Nigeria can sustain reform long enough, deepen macroeconomic stability sufficiently and strengthen the investment climate consistently enough for today’s financial inflows to become tomorrow’s factories, infrastructure projects, technology transfers, export platforms and employment opportunities.
That is the test by which the success of the reforms should ultimately be judged, and it is the test that economic history suggests should be applied.
Yakubu is Director-General, Budget Office of the Federation
Opinion
The Quiet Restoration of the Attorney General of Federation’s Office
By Lemmy Ughegbe, Ph.D
For years, the office of the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) found itself at the centre of controversies that often overshadowed its constitutional importance. Debates raged over whether the office should be separated from that of the Minister of Justice. Critics lamented what they perceived as creeping politicisation, while public confidence in the office steadily eroded.
Today, however, something remarkable appears to be happening. Quietly and without fanfare, the dignity and prestige of that office are being restored. Much of the credit for this belongs to Prince Lateef Olasunkanmi Fagbemi (SAN) whose stewardship as Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice has been marked not by noise, but by professionalism, restraint and a profound respect for the institution he leads.
Against this backdrop, the relative calm that has characterised Fagbemi’s tenure should not be mistaken for inactivity. Far from it. Perhaps his most consequential intervention has been the legal battle for local government autonomy.
For decades, local governments existed largely at the mercy of state governments, with allocations often subjected to varying degrees of control and interference.
Under Fagbemi’s watch, the Federal Government took the politically risky decision of approaching the Supreme Court to challenge the practice.
The resulting judgment, which affirmed the financial autonomy of local governments, may eventually rank among the most important constitutional decisions of the Fourth Republic.
Whatever difficulties may arise in implementation, the case represented a bold attempt to deepen grassroots democracy and strengthen constitutional governance.
In fairness, the AGF has done his bit.The law has spoken. The Supreme Court has pronounced itself in clear and unambiguous terms. The responsibility now shifts from the courtroom to politics and governance.
It is now up to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to demonstrate the political will required to ensure obedience to the judgment and guarantee that local governments receive their allocations directly from the Federation Account.
History may ultimately judge the case not by the brilliance of the legal arguments that secured victory, but by the fidelity with which the judgment is implemented.
After all, court judgments derive their true value not from the eloquence of their pronouncements, but from the willingness of governments to obey them.
Equally significant has been the increasing emphasis on terrorism prosecutions. For years, Nigerians demanded not merely arrests but convictions. After all, the true test of criminal justice is not simply the apprehension of suspects. It is securing convictions through due process.
The successful prosecution of those responsible for the horrific Owo Catholic Church massacre demonstrated that counterterrorism does not end on the battlefield. It ends in the courtroom.
Security victories are ultimately consolidated through convictions. In this regard, the Ministry of Justice under Fagbemi has played an indispensable role.
Another example of measured leadership emerged during the controversy surrounding the prosecution of minors arrested in connection with the EndBadGovernance protests. Public outrage followed the arraignment of visibly malnourished children on treason charges.
Rather than dig in, the AGF intervened, demanded the case file and subsequently directed that the charges be discontinued. It was a reminder that prosecutorial powers are not merely instruments of punishment. They are also instruments of justice. At a time when emotions were high, the AGF chose restraint over vengeance and compassion over rigidity.
Perhaps equally noteworthy is what has not happened. Unlike previous eras when Attorneys-General frequently found themselves at the centre of public controversies and institutional confrontations, Fagbemi has largely allowed the courts and the law to speak.
He has conducted himself with the restraint, dignity and professionalism expected of the nation’s chief law officer.
Indeed, one of the most striking features of his stewardship has been his evident determination to distance both himself and his office from the temptations of partisan politics.
He has neither sought political relevance nor attempted to transform the office into a platform for political grandstanding.
That distinction matters.
Because the office of the AGF is too important to become merely another political office.
Indeed, for years, legal scholars and public affairs commentators vigorously debated whether the office of the AGF should be separated from that of the Minister of Justice.
The argument was driven largely by concerns that the fusion of both offices often created tensions between professional legal responsibilities and partisan political considerations.
Successive controversies involving some occupants of the office only strengthened calls for such constitutional surgery.
Curiously, the intensity of that debate has diminished considerably under the stewardship of Prince Lateef Olasunkanmi Fagbemi.
Perhaps this is because public confidence has gradually been restored through the conduct of a quintessential gentleman who has approached the office with restraint, professionalism and dignity.
His tenure serves as a reminder that institutions do not always fail because of their design.
Sometimes, they fail because of the character of those entrusted with them.
And sometimes, what appears to require constitutional amendment merely requires the right occupant.
That, perhaps, is one of the quiet but profound lessons of the present stewardship.
No AGF can satisfy everyone.
Nor should any public official be insulated from criticism.
But criticism should not prevent recognition where recognition is deserved.
Perhaps the greatest achievement of the current AGF lies not in any single case.
It lies in restoring dignity and prestige to an office whose credibility had, at different times, come under strain.
Politics rewards noise. History rewards results.
And while it may still be too early to deliver a definitive verdict on his tenure, there are sufficient indicators to suggest that Prince Lateef Olasunkanmi Fagbemi is attempting something increasingly rare in Nigerian public life.
He is placing institution above personality.
Process above spectacle.
Law above politics.
That, in itself, is worthy of notice.
Because in a country often distracted by noise, quiet reforms can sometimes become the most enduring legacy of all.
And perhaps that is the quiet restoration of the AGF’s Office.
Dr Lemmy Ughegbe, FIMC, CMC
lemmyughegbeofficial@gmail.com
WhatsApp ONLY: +2348069716645
Opinion
THE HEROES WE IGNORE
By Lemmy Ughegbe, Ph.D.
When Nigerians think about national security, they think about soldiers. They think about troops advancing through difficult terrain, fighter jets pounding enemy positions and dramatic gun battles. What they rarely think about is intelligence.
Yet intelligence is where victory usually begins. Before the arrest comes surveillance. Before the rescue comes information. Before a terrorist commander is eliminated, somebody must first know who he is, where he hides, how he moves and who sustains him.
That is the work of intelligence. And if recent events are anything to go by, Nigeria’s intelligence community deserves far more recognition than it currently receives.
On May 16, 2026, United States and Nigerian forces carried out what President Donald Trump described as a “meticulously planned and very complex mission” that eliminated Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, the second-in-command of ISIS globally.
Perhaps the most revealing testimony came from General Dagvin Anderson, Commander of the United States Africa Command, who stated that Nigerian authorities were instrumental in developing the target and providing the intelligence that made the operation possible.
Think about that for a moment.
Nigeria’s intelligence agencies helped the world’s most powerful military hunt down and eliminate the number two figure in ISIS.
That should have dominated headlines.
Instead, it passed almost unnoticed.
And that was not all.
Only recently, the Department of State Services arrested five suspects, including two foreign nationals, linked to the logistics network behind the attack on St. Mary’s Catholic School in Papiri, Niger State. Fifteen AK-47 rifles and more than 1,400 rounds of ammunition were recovered from the suspects.
Earlier, painstaking investigations and years of intelligence work culminated in the conviction and death sentences handed to terrorists involved in the horrific Owo Catholic Church massacre.
These are not ordinary achievements.
They are major victories against terrorism.
Yet we are not celebrating enough.
Part of the problem lies in how we consume security news.
There is an unhealthy tendency, particularly on social media, to amplify every attack while paying scant attention to breakthroughs. Some individuals even recycle images from conflicts elsewhere in Africa and falsely present them as recent incidents in Nigeria.
That is not journalism.
It is propaganda.
And it serves the interests of terrorists.
Terrorist organisations thrive on fear. Their objective is not merely to kill but to demoralise societies and create the impression that governments are powerless.
When citizens endlessly circulate images of destruction while ignoring victories, they unwittingly become amplifiers of the enemy’s message.
Other countries understand this.
After the September 11 attacks, Americans rallied against Al-Qaeda. Following the October 2023 Hamas attacks, Israelis united in confronting Hamas.
This does not mean governments should be shielded from criticism. Democracies thrive on accountability.
But before politics comes survival.
Before the 2027 elections, there must first be a country.
The war against insecurity should never become another casualty of partisan passions.
This is why community policing and intelligence sharing deserve serious attention.
No government can deploy enough security personnel to effectively police over 220 million Nigerians. Intelligence must flow from communities, and communities must trust the institutions established to protect them.
Trust grows when citizens see results.
And when results come, they should be acknowledged.
There is another angle that deserves serious consideration.
The DSS is presently prosecuting suspects linked to some of Nigeria’s most devastating terrorist attacks, including the bombing of the United Nations building in Abuja, the attack on the Deeper Life Bible Church in Okene and the Owo Catholic Church massacre.
It is therefore worth asking whether some recent attacks may represent retaliation by foot soldiers seeking revenge for the arrest and prosecution of their leaders.
If that is the case, the answer cannot be retreat. The answer is more intelligence.
The answer is faster trials. The answer is more convictions.
Since assuming office in 2024, DSS Director-General Oluwatosin Ajayi appears to have placed greater emphasis on intelligence-driven prevention. Terrorist cells have been penetrated. Kidnapping syndicates have been disrupted. Arms trafficking networks have increasingly come under pressure.
That is a story worth telling.
But beyond the headlines and the arrests are sacrifices that seldom receive public attention.
An increasing number of operatives of the Department of State Services have paid the ultimate price in the line of duty. Others have sustained life-changing injuries. Their names rarely trend. Their funerals seldom make front pages. Their families bear losses that the nation scarcely notices.
Yet, these men and women willingly place themselves between danger and the rest of us. They are among the quiet guardians of the Republic.
Certainly, Nigeria’s security challenges remain enormous and no institution should be immune from scrutiny. But accountability and appreciation are not opposites.
A democracy that notices its security agencies only when they fail, while refusing to acknowledge them when they succeed, risks creating a culture that rewards cynicism and forgetfulness.
The men and women of our intelligence services work in the shadows. They seldom appear on television. They rarely grant interviews. Many will never receive medals or public acclaim. Some have paid the ultimate price so that others may live.
Yet every terrorist attack prevented, every bomb intercepted, every kidnap victim rescued and every peaceful morning that millions of Nigerians wake up to owes something to their patient, invisible and dangerous work.
Perhaps the greatest victories are not always the ones we see. Sometimes, the most important victories are the tragedies that never happened because someone, somewhere, working quietly in the shadows, stopped them before they began.
Those men and women are the heroes we ignore. They deserve our gratitude.
They deserve our remembrance. And yes, they deserve our celebration
Email: lemmyughegbeofficial +2348069716645
Opinion
The Role of Intelligence in the Nigeria-US Joint Counter-Terrorism Operations That Neutralized Top ISWAP Commander, Fighters
By Augustine Aminu
On Friday, May 16, 2026, the world was jolted by news of the killing of top commander of the Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP), Abour Mainok and several other fighters. Also known as Abu Bilal al-Minuki, and considered the second-in-command of ISIL (ISIS) globally, the top terrorist commander was reportedly killed during a joint Nigeria-U.S. Counter Terrorism operation in Metele, Borno State.
Ever since the elimination of al-Minuki, considered one of the biggest blows in recent times to terrorists in the world over, torrents of encomium have been pouring in for the Nigeria -U. S. joint terrorism operations.
Posting on his Truth Social handle, U. S. President Donald Trump, wrote, “Brave American forces and the Armed Forces of Nigeria flawlessly executed a meticulously planned and very complex mission to eliminate the most active terrorist in the world from the battlefield,”
Al-Minuki, added President Trump, “thought he could hide in Africa, but little did he know we had sources who kept us informed on what he was doing.”
On his part, President Bola Tinubu stated that both countries had “recorded a significant example of effective collaboration in the fight against terrorism”.
Early assessments indicate that al-Minuki, along with “several of his lieutenants,” were killed during a strike on his compound in Metele, Borno State,” Tinubu said.
“Nigeria appreciates this partnership with the United States in advancing our shared security objectives,” he added. “I extend my sincere gratitude to President Trump for his leadership and unwavering support in this effort,” he added.
A few days after President Trump praised Nigerian Intelligence services for helping to hunt down Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, a man he described as “the most active terrorist in the world,” US Air Force General, Dagvin R.M. Anderson, Commander of U.S. Africa Command, also spoke glowingly of Nigeria’s Intelligence services.
Remarked Anderson, “The Nigerians have been instrumental throughout the last several months, developing the target, helping us with the Intelligence and providing support. So, it could not have been done by our own Forces. We needed to do that in conjunction with them.”
Security sources who analyzed President Trump’s terse statement, alongside that of the to head of AFRICOM, General Anderson, were quick to point out that the “sources” who kept the United States and Nigerian Armed Forces informed of the movements of al-Minuki and his fighters, may be none other than Nigeria’s Intelligence agencies: the Department of State Services (DSS), the Nigerian Intelligence Agency (NIA), and Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA).
Interestingly, six days before al-Minuki’s elimination, something crucial to the fight against terrorism happened in one North central town, well over 1,100 kilometres away from Metele, Borno State, where al-Minuki and over 175 of his fighters would meet their Waterloo.
Just as DSS, NIA and DIA operatives were helping US and Nigerian troops monitor the movement of Al-Minuki and his fighters around the Lake Chad region, a set of DSS operatives covertly captured a notorious leader of one of ISWAP’s critical cell in Nigeria . His name is Abdulrahman Ozovieh Muhammad alias Abu Ghozi.
Abu Ghozi, security sources believe, masterminded the December 2020 attack on a military checkpoint in Okene, killing two naval personnel and carting away their weapons.
Additionally, Abu Ghozi is believed to have masterminded the 11th March, 2021 bank robbery at Okuku, in Oda-Atin LGA of Osun State; carried out several attacks on police formations in Okene, Okehi and Adavi LGAs. He didn’t spare security checkpoints along Okene-Auchi, Okene –Kabba and Okene-Ajaokuta roads.
Also believed to be behind several kidnaps, including the October 2025 kidnap of a Chinese national in Okpella, Edo State, during which eight personnel of the Nigerian Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) were killed, is Abu Ghozi.
In January, 2026, his group reportedly attacked and burnt down the house of the Chief Priest at Uhodo area of Okehi LGA. Members of his suspected terrorist group were, before his arrest by the DSS, reportedly set to attack detention facilities in Kainji and Abuja, to release detained members of their group.
Security sources believe that Abu Ghozi’s capture by DSS officers may have greatly helped the Nigerian Intelligence Services (DSS, NIA and DIA) gather further Intelligence that was ultimately used to nail al-Minuki and his fighters six days later in faraway Metele, Borno State.
No doubt, Nigeria’s Intelligence community and their military counterpart again proved very invaluable to the recent successes in the global fight against terrorism, and helped position Nigeria as a very trusted ally in the fight against terrorism.
For the first time since Nigeria began fighting terrorism circa 2010, the country has now fully turned the heat on terrorists, smoking them.out on a daily basis.. The recent successes recorded shows that with our Armed Forces increasingly relying on the intelligence supplied by the DSS, NIA and DIA, Nigeria will sooner than later overcome her security challenges.
Aminu has been online editor of several newspapers, and lives in Abuja
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