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The Political Economy of Nigeria’s 2027 Elections: APC’s Path to Victory by Olugbesan Idris, Ph.D

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Party Politics in Nigeria and the Electoral Prospects of the All Progressives Congress in 2027: A Political Economy Analysis by Olugbesan Idris, Ph.D

Introduction

The study of party politics in Nigeria demands an analytical approach that transcends descriptive institutionalism and engages deeply with the structural underpinnings of power, distribution, and elite coordination. Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, Nigeria has exhibited the formal attributes of electoral democracy while simultaneously sustaining informal practices rooted in patronage, identity, and elite bargaining. This duality renders the Nigerian case particularly fertile for the application of political economy and political science theories.

At the center of this analysis lies the question of whether the All Progressives Congress (APC), as the incumbent ruling party, can reproduce its presidential dominance in the 2027 elections. While conventional electoral analysis might emphasize voter preferences or campaign dynamics, a more sophisticated approach situates electoral outcomes within deeper structural logics—what Richard Joseph conceptualized as prebendal politics, and what subsequent scholars have reframed through theories of clientelism, neopatrimonialism, and political settlements.

This article advances a three-part argument. First, it examines the structural foundations of Nigeria’s party system through the lenses of prebendalism, weak institutionalization, and neopatrimonial governance. Second, it interrogates the dynamics of elite coordination, clientelist exchange, and incumbency advantage that shape electoral competition. Third, it explores emerging pressures—economic, sociological, and institutional—that may recalibrate the balance of power ahead of 2027. Together, these perspectives provide a theoretically grounded assessment of the APC’s prospects within Nigeria’s evolving political order.

Part I: Structural Foundations of Party Politics in Nigeria

The architecture of Nigeria’s party system is best understood as a product of historical institutional trajectories and resource-dependent state formation. Paul Pierson notion of path dependence is particularly instructive: institutional arrangements established during military rule—especially fiscal centralization and executive dominance—have generated self-reinforcing dynamics that persist into the democratic era.

Within this structure, political competition is less about ideological differentiation and more about access to state-controlled resources. Joseph’s Democracy and Prebendal Politics in Nigeria (1987) remains the canonical text for understanding this phenomenon. Public office, in this view, is treated as a prebend—an entitlement to be exploited for personal and group benefit. Importantly, prebendalism is not merely corruption; it is an organizing principle of political life.

This logic is reinforced by what Nicolas van de Walle describes in African Economies and the Politics of Permanent Crisis (2001) as neopatrimonialism: the coexistence of formal bureaucratic institutions with informal patron-client networks. In Nigeria, parties function as vehicles for mediating these networks rather than as programmatic organizations.

The weakness of party institutionalization further accentuates this dynamic. Drawing on Scott Mainwaring framework in Building Democratic Institutions (1995), Nigeria exhibits high electoral volatility, weak societal roots for parties, and low ideological coherence. Yet, as Kanchan Chandra argues in Why Ethnic Parties Succeed (2004), such fluidity is not necessarily pathological; it reflects rational adaptation to a context where identity and patronage dominate political mobilization.

The APC itself is emblematic of this structure. Formed as a coalition of opposition forces, it lacks ideological unity but compensates through organizational flexibility and elite inclusivity. Its continued dominance thus depends less on institutional depth than on its ability to navigate and reproduce the underlying political economy.

Part II: Elite Coordination, Clientelism, and Incumbency Advantage

If the first layer of analysis is structural, the second is strategic—centered on how political actors operate within these constraints. Here, rational choice institutionalism and elite theory provide critical insights.

From the perspective of Douglass North Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance (1990), parties serve as coordination mechanisms that reduce uncertainty in elite interactions. Nigerian politics can thus be understood as a series of bargaining games among elites seeking to maximize access to state resources. The APC’s formation in 2013 represented a successful coordination equilibrium; its survival depends on maintaining that equilibrium.

However, as Mancur Olson demonstrates in The Logic of Collective Action (1965), large coalitions are inherently unstable. Distributional conflicts, free-rider problems, and leadership rivalries generate persistent centrifugal pressures. Within the APC, issues such as zoning, succession, and resource allocation are potential flashpoints that could destabilize the coalition ahead of 2027.

Clientelism further shapes these dynamics at the mass level. Herbert Kitschelt Patrons, Clients, and Policies (2007) highlights how broker-mediated exchanges structure voter-party relationships. In Nigeria, local intermediaries distribute targeted benefits in exchange for electoral support, creating a dense web of reciprocal obligations.

The APC’s incumbency significantly enhances its capacity to sustain these networks. Under Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the party controls federal resources, administrative institutions, and agenda-setting mechanisms. This aligns with the broader literature on incumbency advantage, which emphasizes the strategic benefits of resource access and institutional leverage.

Yet, incumbency is a double-edged sword. As Mushtaq Khan political settlements framework suggests, maintaining elite cohesion requires continuous redistribution. Economic constraints—particularly declining fiscal space—may undermine the APC’s ability to satisfy competing demands, thereby increasing the risk of elite defection.

Part III: Emerging Pressures and the Reconfiguration of Electoral Competition

While structural advantages and strategic coordination favor the APC, emerging pressures introduce significant uncertainty into the 2027 equation. These pressures operate across economic, sociological, and informational dimensions.

Economically, Nigeria faces what can be conceptualized through Joseph Schumpeter The Crisis of the Tax State (1918): a tension between revenue generation and political legitimacy. The erosion of oil rents and macroeconomic instability constrain the state’s distributive capacity. In turn, Albert Hirschman Exit, Voice, and Loyalty (1970) suggests that both elites and citizens may respond through defection or dissent if material expectations are unmet.

Sociologically, shifts in voter behavior complicate traditional clientelist models. Ronald Inglehart work on value change points to the growing importance of non-material considerations, particularly among younger and urban voters. While Nigeria’s context remains distinct, there is evidence of increasing political awareness and issue-based mobilization, especially in urban centers.

Technologically, digital platforms such as Twitter and Facebook have transformed the informational landscape. These platforms reduce the informational asymmetries that historically favored incumbents, enabling opposition actors to mobilize and coordinate more effectively. However, they also provide tools for incumbents to shape narratives and manage dissent.

Finally, institutional and security dynamics remain critical. Drawing on Max Weber conception of the state, the capacity to maintain order and legitimacy is central to political authority. Electoral credibility, judicial interventions, and security conditions will all influence the 2027 outcome.

Conclusion

A theoretically grounded analysis of party politics in Nigeria reveals a complex interplay between structural constraints, strategic agency, and emergent pressures. The APC enters the 2027 electoral cycle with significant advantages rooted in incumbency, elite coordination, and the enduring logic of prebendal distribution. These advantages are reinforced by path-dependent institutional arrangements and a fragmented opposition landscape.

Yet, these same dynamics generate vulnerabilities. Economic constraints threaten the sustainability of patronage networks; intra-elite competition risks coalition fragmentation; and evolving voter expectations introduce new uncertainties into electoral behavior.

In sum, the APC’s prospects in 2027 are best understood not as predetermined, but as contingent upon its ability to navigate Nigeria’s intricate political economy. The election will serve as a critical juncture, testing whether the party can reproduce its dominance within a system that is simultaneously resilient and unstable—structured by history, shaped by strategy, and open to transformation.

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Senator George Akume and the Test of Party Democracy in Benue

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Senator George Akume, CON, represents a rare breed of Nigerian politician. In a political culture often characterised by impatience, self-interest, and inconsistency, he has distinguished himself through patience, loyalty, and an enduring commitment to teamwork.

I have worked closely with him and witnessed his steady rise since 1999, when he became Governor of Benue State. From there, he went on to serve as Senator, Minister of the Federal Republic, and now Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF). His trajectory has been defined not by haste, but by discipline and a remarkable ability to work within the system.

These qualities have been severely tested in recent times, particularly in his relationship with Governor Hyacinth Alia. Governor Alia entered the political arena with significant backing despite having limited political experience, modest resources, and no established structure to contend with seasoned figures such as Barnabas Gemade and Steven Lawani. Against these odds, he emerged victorious.

However, from the moment he assumed office, his relationship with Senator Akume deteriorated without any clear provocation. What began as a strained engagement has since evolved into a persistent political rift.

When discussions later emerged about a potential second term for the governor, many of us close to Senator Akume were understandably concerned by what appeared to be the position of the party’s national leadership. Yet, true to his nature, Akume remained calm and aligned himself with the party, even where the circumstances were personally unfavourable.

This included accepting the controversial dissolution of the duly elected state party leadership and the installation of a caretaker committee—decisions he embraced in the interest of party unity. More notably, when he conveyed the directive that political office holders, including the governor, should be returned unopposed, he did so with restraint, placing party cohesion above personal considerations.

At a gathering in Makurdi, he stated:

“All those elected on the platform of the APC, from the State Assembly to the National Assembly, are expected to return automatically… and of course, the Governor is also expected to be returned.

That position, however, was publicly rejected by Governor Alia, who insisted there would be no automatic tickets, citing the stance of the President and the party’s national leadership. In effect, this signalled a willingness to proceed without regard for the political structure that facilitated his emergence.

For many of us, that moment was decisive.

Senator Akume, despite what can only be described as sustained political provocation, has remained composed—much like the biblical Job—accepting both favourable and difficult circumstances within the party framework.

But this is no longer about personalities.

It is about the survival of political order and internal democracy within the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Benue State.

There is a dangerous assumption at play—that power can be consolidated through imposition, that party structures can be ignored, and that those who built the system can be sidelined without consequence. That assumption is fundamentally flawed.

Those of us who have stood with Senator Akume have exercised restraint out of respect for his disposition. But restraint must not be mistaken for weakness.

The time has come for a necessary shift.

Our leader, Senator George Akume, must now allow his supporters—and indeed all party members—to fully exercise their political rights. Let there be open contest. Let aspirants emerge freely, without intimidation or artificial barriers. Let the people of Benue State decide.

Anything short of this will not only fracture the party; it will erode its credibility beyond repair.

And let no one be under any illusion: if the process is manipulated, if candidates are imposed, if the will of the people is subverted, it will mark the beginning of the end for the APC in Benue State.

As one who has followed Nigerian politics since the 1970s, I say this without hesitation: no political party survives sustained injustice against its own members.

The warning signs are already clear. What happens next will determine whether the party corrects itself—or collapses under the weight of its own contradictions.

A Benue APC chosen by the people, not imposed from above, will not only survive—it will endure and dominate.

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Infinix NOTE 60 Ultra Signals a New Era for Premium Smartphones in Nigeria

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Crank, Head of Auto, 234 Drive; Izzie Boye, Tech Expert; Nnamdi Ezeigbo, CEO, SLOT Nigeria; Yefui Nui, Marketing Manager, Infinix Nigeria; Olusegun Adebayo, CEO Harmony Stores with others at the Infinix Note 60 Ultra launch event

Infinix has officially launched the NOTE 60 Ultra in Nigeria, reinforcing its strategic push into the premium smartphone segment through a series of high-impact partnerships spanning design, technology, and retail. The launch event brought together key stakeholders, industry leaders, media, and consumers to experience the device firsthand, highlighting the brand’s commitment to delivering world-class innovation tailored to the Nigerian market.

The Infinix NOTE 60 Ultra on display at its official launch event in Nigeria

The Infinix NOTE 60 Ultra on display at its official launch event in Nigeria

 

Providing a unique perspective on the device’s design, Crank, Head of Auto at 234 Drive, highlighted the supercar-inspired elements that define the NOTE 60 Ultra. Drawing parallels between high-performance automobiles and the smartphone, he pointed to the sleek unibody structure, aerodynamic finish, and precision detailing as key features that echo the craftsmanship of luxury vehicles. He noted that the collaboration behind the device reflects a growing convergence between automotive design principles and consumer technology, resulting in a product that is as much about aesthetics and emotion as it is about performance.

Retail partners also played a central role at the event, with the CEOs SLOT Systems and Harmony Stores present to show their support for the launch. In their remarks, they spoke about the increasing demand within the Nigerian market for devices that combine power, durability, and premium design. They expressed strong confidence in the NOTE 60 Ultra’s market potential, citing its standout features including the Satellite Call and Messaging capability, 200MP camera with Samsung imaging system, 7000 mAh battery, and overall build quality as key factors that will resonate with consumers. They also reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring the product is readily available across their retail channels, making it easier for customers nationwide to access the device.

Head of Auto, 234Drive, speaking on the Infinix Note 60 Ultra Supercar DNA

Head of Auto, 234Drive, speaking on the Infinix Note 60 Ultra Supercar DNA

Adding to the strategic outlook, Yefui Nui, Marketing Manager at Infinix Nigeria, spoke extensively about the brand’s expansion plans and long-term vision. She emphasized that the launch of the NOTE 60 Ultra represents more than just a product introduction; it signals a deliberate move to strengthen Infinix’s presence in the premium category while continuing to innovate across all segments. She highlighted ongoing investments in partnerships, product development, and customer engagement, all aimed at reinforcing Infinix’s position as a forward-thinking brand that understands and evolves with its audience. She further reiterated the company’s commitment to Nigeria as a key growth market, underscoring efforts to continuously deliver products that meet the aspirations of modern consumers.

Following this, Oluwayemisi Ode, PR Manager at Infinix Nigeria, addressed the brand’s pricing strategy, emphasizing a careful balance between premium innovation and accessibility. She noted that while the NOTE 60 Ultra introduces flagship-level features and design, it has been thoughtfully priced to remain competitive and attainable for Nigerian consumers. According to her, this approach reflects Infinix’s long-standing commitment to democratizing advanced technology, ensuring that more users can access cutting-edge experiences without compromising on quality or performance.

Shine Rosman at the Infinix Note 60 Ultra launch event

Shine Rosman at the Infinix Note 60 Ultra launch event

 

The event also attracted a vibrant mix of cultural and tech influencers, adding to the excitement around the launch. Notable personalities such as Shine Rosman, Elozonam, Saga, and Neo Akpofure were in attendance, alongside respected tech expert Izzi Boye. Their presence underscored the growing intersection between technology, lifestyle, and entertainment, reflecting the NOTE 60 Ultra’s positioning as a device designed for today’s dynamic and style-conscious users.

Originally unveiled at Mobile World Congress 2026, the NOTE 60 Ultra brings together a powerful combination of innovation and performance. From its 200MP imaging system and advanced zoom capabilities to satellite connectivity, fast-charging technology, and a long-lasting battery, the device is engineered to deliver a comprehensive flagship experience.

With the NOTE 60 Ultra now available at the Infinix Flagship Store in Abuja, and across SLOT, Pointek, Harmony Stores, 3CHUB, Royalline nationwide, Infinix is setting a new tone for its brand in Nigeria one that confidently bridges accessibility with premium aspiration, while continuing to push the boundaries of what consumers can expect from a smartphone.

 

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NDLEA Officers Nass Course II 2011 Intake Petition/Complaint Of Irregularities, Fairness, And Injustice In Promotion

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NDLEA Officers Nass Course II 2011 Intake Petition/Complaint Of Irregularities, Fairness, And Injustice In Promotion

We, the officers of NASS Course 11, 2011 intake, of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), wish to petition and lodge a complaint to the president and commander in chief of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and to the National Assembly, in the person of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, regarding the irregularities observed in the assignment of promotion and effective dates of promotion and proper placement as was used in the last two recruitments of the 2021/2023 intake.

It is our understanding that promotion effective dates within the agency are guided by established rules and regulations, including seniority dates of enlistment and eligibility. However, we have observed that our effective date of promotion has been assigned in a manner that does not reflect the principles.

We are particularly concerned that some of our colleagues, who were enlisted in the agency at the same time as us, have been assigned effective promotion dates that are one year and seven months earlier than ours.

It has also been observed that joining the service as a junior cadre, efforts have been put in place to further education by a lot of officers of the agency, and a result was sent to the agency for recognition and proper placement. Up until now, nothing has been done over that.

This issue has arisen during the last two recruitments conducted by the current chairman and chief executive officer, Brig. Gen. Buba Marwa. As of the time of the recruitment offer, it was offered to each cadre, respectively; some others applied as senior cadre, while others applied as junior cadre. At the point of the screening of the junior cadre, they then applied as NASS3– NASS2–NSSS1–NA–SNA –CNA respectively.

And the chairman opened the field for those who apply as junior officers to forward their additional qualifications without considering the officers who are in the service for more than 12-25 years.

According to the agency condition of service chapter 2 section 19 under guidelines for promotion, it was revealed that promotion shall be determined strictly on the basis of competition and merit amongst all eligible candidates, and it shall depend on the existence of a vacancy, and it was further stipulated in section 9(d) that staff are eligible for promotion within the specified minimum period of two years; it also said COMPASS 3-6 have a minimum period of two years for promotion, while COMPASS 7-14 have a minimum period of three years, and COMPASS 15 have a minimum period of four years for promotion.

This discrepancy has adversely affected our seniority, financial entitlements and career progression, and we consider this development to be inconsistent with the principle of fairness, equity and due process expected within the agency.

If such irregularities doesn’t address it will undermine confidence in the promotion system.

The most unfortunate thing, some of the officers of NASS course ll 2011 intake despite they spent 15 years in the service of their fatherland but irregularities hindered their promotion as they are still on 𝐍𝐀, 𝐒𝐍𝐀, 𝐂𝐍𝐀 rank respectively.

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